← Primeira Liga 2019-20 · Sun, Mar 8, 05:30 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 76% | 80% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 15% | 6.18 | fair |
| Aves win | 8% | 5% | 12.93 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Aves −1.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Sporting Clube de Portugal −1.75 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 58% | 51% | 1.66 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 49% | 2.30 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 3 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 14 | Corners | 0 |
| 16 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.