← Primeira Liga 2019-20 · Sun, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: António Nobre
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão win | 37% | 34% | 2.69 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 32% | 37% | 3.05 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.10 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão +0 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Pacos Ferreira +0 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 57% | 1.69 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 43% | 2.24 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Marcelo · Pacos Ferreira |
| 56' | 🟨 | Álex Centelles · FC Famalicão |
| 62' | 🟨 | Stephen Eustáquio · Pacos Ferreira |
| 67' | 🟨 | Pedrinho · Pacos Ferreira |
| 71' | ⚽ | Uilton Silva · Pacos Ferreira |
| 75' | 🟨 | Adriano Castanheira · Pacos Ferreira |
| 75' | 🟨 | Pote · FC Famalicão |
| 78' | ⚽ | Denilson · Pacos Ferreira |
| 79' | 🟨 | Denilson · Pacos Ferreira |
| 86' | 🟨 | Gustavo Assunção · FC Famalicão |
| 89' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 23 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | FC Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio da Capital do Móvel |
| ⚽ |
| Toni Martínez · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | 🟥 | Denilson · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' | 🟥 | Patrick William · FC Famalicão |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 632.00 | 783.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.61 | 3.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1418.57 | 1528.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.54 | -44.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.66 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 51.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.76 |
| league points | 16.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.57 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.55 | 0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.98 | -0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.31 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |