← Primeira Liga 2019-20 · Fri, Jan 31, 09:15 PM UTC · ref: Artur Soares Dias
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 48% | 44% | 1.99 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.56 | fair |
| FC Famalicão win | 24% | 27% | 4.00 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Rio Ave FC −0.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 49% | 1.93 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 51% | 1.95 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Toni Martínez · FC Famalicão |
| 37' | ⚽ | Pote · FC Famalicão |
| 42' | 🟨 | Matheus Reis · Rio Ave FC |
| 44' | 🟨 | Uroš Račić · FC Famalicão |
| 45' | 🟨 | Diogo Figueiras · Rio Ave FC |
| 63' | ⚽ | Gelson Dala · Rio Ave FC |
| 72' | 🟨 | Toni Borevković · Rio Ave FC |
| 73' | ⚽ | Tarantini · Rio Ave FC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Diego Lopes · Rio Ave FC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Pote · FC Famalicão |
| 85' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 7 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 20 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | FC Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube |
| 🟨 |
| Riccieli · FC Famalicão |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 214.00 | 760.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.86 | 3.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1590.04 | 1555.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.42 | 3.14 |
| eye test v1 | -0.96 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.81 |
| league points | 28.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.80 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 4.10 | 5.26 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.72 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.93 | 0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.20 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.80 |
| state index | 0.42 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.31 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |