← Primeira Liga 2019-20 · Fri, Jan 31, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 87% | 91% | 1.10 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 7% | 11.31 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 3% | 3% | 31.08 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica −2.5 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Belenenses −2.5 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 73% | 53% | 1.30 | fair |
| Under | 27% | 47% | 3.63 | value: +70% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Nilton Varela · Belenenses |
| 19' | 🟨 | Pizzi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 31' | ⚽ | Carlos Vinícius · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 38' | ⚽ | Adel Taarabt · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 42' | 🟨 | Tiago Esgaio · Belenenses |
| 60' | 🟨 | Show · Belenenses |
| 69' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Silva · Belenenses |
| 70' | ⚽ (og) | Ferro · Belenenses |
| 78' | ⚽ | Chiquinho · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 85' | 🟨 | Rafa Silva · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 87' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 9 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| Licá · Belenenses |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 395.00 | 30.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.11 | 2.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1947.19 | 1462.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.66 | -39.14 |
| eye test v1 | 1.65 | -0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.10 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.80 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | 0.65 |
| league points | 51.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 5.06 | 5.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.83 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 6.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.93 | -0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 25.85 | — |
| state index | 1.90 | -0.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |