← Primeira Liga 2019-20 · Sat, Jan 11, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Costa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 36% | 44% | 2.68 | value: +18% |
| FC Famalicão win | 35% | 31% | 2.77 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boavista +0 | 51% | 1.92 |
| FC Famalicão +0 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 54% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 46% | 2.08 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟥 | Rafael Defendi · FC Famalicão |
| 20' | 🟨 | Pote · FC Famalicão |
| 26' | 🟨 | Nikola Stojiljković · Boavista |
| 42' | 🟨 | Diogo Gonçalves · FC Famalicão |
| 50' | 🟨 | Neris · Boavista |
| 57' | 🟨 | Rafael Costa · Boavista |
| 71' | 🟨 | Riccieli · FC Famalicão |
| 81' | ⚽ | Toni Martínez · FC Famalicão |
| 82' | 🟨 | Carraça · Boavista |
| 84' | 🟥 | Marlon · Boavista |
| 84' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 25 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | FC Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.51 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa Século XXI |
| Toni Martínez · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nwankwo Obiora · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 375.00 | 740.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.08 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1558.33 | 1561.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.69 | -19.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | 1.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 53.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.53 |
| league points | 19.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.20 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.60 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 5.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.81 | 0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.00 |
| state index | -0.26 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.27 | 0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |