← Primeira Liga 2019-20 · Fri, Jan 10, 09:15 PM UTC · ref: Artur Soares Dias
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 74% | 73% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 14% | 5.60 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 9% | 13% | 11.00 | value: +47% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto +1.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Moreirense FC +1.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 49% | 1.68 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 51% | 2.28 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Fabio Abreu · Moreirense FC |
| 25' | 🟨 | João Aurélio · Moreirense FC |
| 30' | 🟨 | Jesús Corona · FC Porto |
| 32' | ⚽ | Tiquinho Soares · FC Porto |
| 39' | 🟨 | Abdu Conté · Moreirense FC |
| 39' | ⚽ (pen) | Alex Telles · FC Porto |
| 44' | ⚽ | João Aurélio · Moreirense FC |
| 56' | 🟨 | Mateus Uribe · FC Porto |
| 72' | ⚽ | Luis Díaz · FC Porto |
| 74' | 🟨 | Otavio · FC Porto |
| 85' | ⚽ |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas |
| Jesús Corona · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jesús Corona · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟥 | Jesús Corona · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 193.00 | 953.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.37 | 1.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1511.51 | 1888.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.58 | 8.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | 0.99 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.75 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.64 |
| league points | 17.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 5.26 | 5.16 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 2.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.42 | 1.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| squad age | — | 26.76 |
| state index | 0.00 | 1.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | 0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |