← Primeira Liga 2019-20 · Sun, Dec 8, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: João Pedro Pinheiro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 75% | 75% | 1.27 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 19% | 5.83 | value: +12% |
| Belenenses win | 8% | 5% | 12.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto +1.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Belenenses +1.5 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 54% | 1.66 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 46% | 2.31 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Andre Santos · Belenenses |
| 32' | ⚽ (pen) | Alex Telles · FC Porto |
| 53' | 🟨 | Silvestre Varela · Belenenses |
| 64' | 🟨 | Hervé Koffi · Belenenses |
| 65' | 🟨 | Chima Akas · Belenenses |
| 71' | 🟨 | Tomás Ribeiro · Belenenses |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tiago Esgaio · Belenenses |
| 90' | 🟨 | André Sousa · Belenenses |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nuno Coelho · Belenenses |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pepê · FC Porto |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 21 | Fouls | 18 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| venue | Estádio Nacional |
| 🟨 |
| Tiquinho Soares · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 981.00 | 920.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 1.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1494.70 | 1881.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.73 | -6.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.70 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.70 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.80 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| league points | 14.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 7.21 | 5.97 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 2.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.23 | 0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 26.71 |
| state index | -0.20 | 1.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | 0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |