← Primeira Liga 2019-20 · Sat, Dec 7, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: Rui Costa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 70% | 58% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 26% | 5.46 | value: +43% |
| Aves win | 12% | 16% | 8.50 | value: +37% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga +1.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Aves +1.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 53% | 1.69 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 47% | 2.25 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Pablo Santos · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 8' | ⚽ | Mehrdad Mohammadi · Aves |
| 27' | 🟨 | Rúben Oliveira · Aves |
| 29' | 🟨 | Bruno Viana · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 56' | 🟨 | Quentin Beunardeau · Aves |
| 63' | 🟨 | Ricardo Esgaio · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 78' | 🟨 | Nuno Sequeira · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 80' | 🟨 | Mehrdad Mohammadi · Aves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Welinton Junior · Aves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jailson · Aves |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 13 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 13 |
| 24 | Fouls | 17 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aves | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves |
| 🟨 |
| Wenderson Galeno · Sporting Clube de Braga |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0.80 |
| coach days | 705.00 | 6.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1410.70 | 1720.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.96 | 37.25 |
| eye test v1 | -1.19 | 0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 63.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.49 | 0.63 |
| league points | 3.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 7.21 | 5.07 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.25 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.13 | 0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | — | 26.88 |
| state index | -1.20 | 1.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.56 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |