← Primeira Liga 2019-20 · Sat, Dec 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: André Narciso
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 36% | 34% | 2.73 | fair |
| CD Santa Clara win | 33% | 35% | 2.97 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Maritimo +0 | 53% | 1.86 |
| CD Santa Clara +0 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 62% | 1.58 | fair |
| Over | 39% | 38% | 2.46 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ (pen) | Daizen Maeda · Maritimo |
| 25' | 🟨 | Lucas Marques · CD Santa Clara |
| 41' | ⚽ | João Afonso · CD Santa Clara |
| 45' | 🟨 | Amir Abedzadeh · Maritimo |
| 49' | 🟨 | Patrick · CD Santa Clara |
| 57' | 🟨 | Ruben Ferreira · Maritimo |
| 61' | ⚽ | Ukra · CD Santa Clara |
| 62' | 🟨 | Osama Rashid · CD Santa Clara |
| 90' | 🟨 | Renê Santos · Maritimo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Guilherme Schettine · CD Santa Clara |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 11 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | CD Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio dos Barreiros |
| ⚽ |
| Ruben Ferreira · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 36.00 | 2227.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1472.57 | 1509.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.18 | -22.74 |
| eye test v1 | -1.08 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.83 |
| league points | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 6.88 | 7.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.47 | 0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.61 | -0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.95 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |