← Primeira Liga 2019-20 · Fri, Dec 6, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: Jorge de Sousa
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 59% | 63% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.85 | fair |
| Boavista win | 16% | 13% | 6.12 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Boavista +1 | 55% | 1.76 |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica +1 | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 51% | 45% | 1.93 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 55% | 1.96 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estádio do Bessa Século XXI |