← Primeira Liga 2019-20 · Sun, Nov 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: António Nobre
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 45% | 52% | 2.18 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 27% | 21% | 3.79 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Pacos Ferreira −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| CD Tondela −0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 61% | 56% | 1.57 | fair |
| Over | 39% | 44% | 2.49 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 24 | Fouls | 24 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estádio da Capital do Móvel |