← Primeira Liga 2019-20 · Sun, Nov 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: André Narciso
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense win | 36% | 37% | 2.68 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 34% | 32% | 2.91 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portimonense +0 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Maritimo +0 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 57% | 1.60 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 43% | 2.42 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | ⚽ | Lucas Fernandes · Portimonense |
| 59' | 🟨 | Jackson Martínez · Portimonense |
| 66' | 🟨 | Douglas Grolli · Maritimo |
| 67' | 🟨 | Pedro Sá · Portimonense |
| 71' | ⚽ | Getterson · Maritimo |
| 73' | 🟨 | Edgar Costa · Maritimo |
| 73' | 🟨 | Lucas Fernandes · Portimonense |
| 81' | 🟨 | Fábio China · Maritimo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Getterson · Maritimo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Anderson Oliveira · Portimonense |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 25 | Fouls | 21 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estádio dos Barreiros |
| 🟨 |
| Rodrigo · Portimonense |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bruno Tabata · Portimonense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 9.00 | 466.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 1.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1491.35 | 1482.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.82 | -7.77 |
| eye test v1 | -1.08 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.61 |
| league points | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.20 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -2.62 | -0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.32 | 26.23 |
| state index | -0.34 | -0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.55 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |