← Primeira Liga 2019-20 · Sat, Nov 9, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão win | 47% | 56% | 2.05 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.50 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 25% | 20% | 3.91 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC −0.5 | 52% | 1.87 |
| FC Famalicão −0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 54% | 1.93 | value: +5% |
| Under | 50% | 46% | 1.95 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Fábio Martins · FC Famalicão |
| 26' | 🟨 | Diogo Gonçalves · FC Famalicão |
| 32' | ⚽ | Uroš Račić · FC Famalicão |
| 50' | 🟨 | Gustavo Assunção · FC Famalicão |
| 57' | 🟨 | Álex Centelles · FC Famalicão |
| 58' | 🟨 | Djavan · Moreirense FC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Filipe Soares · Moreirense FC |
| 64' | ⚽ | Toni Martínez · FC Famalicão |
| 66' | ⚽ | Luís Machado · Moreirense FC |
| 79' | ⚽ | Pedro Nuno · Moreirense FC |
| 84' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 14 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Famalicão | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho |
| 🟨 |
| Thibang Phete · FC Famalicão |
| 85' | ⚽ (pen) | Steven Vitória · Moreirense FC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Fábio Pacheco · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Nehuén Pérez · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luís Machado · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Filipe Soares · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Filipe Soares · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 677.00 | 131.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1581.22 | 1507.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.15 | -6.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.29 | -0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.40 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.12 | 47.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| league points | 23.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 6.01 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 2.30 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -9.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | -0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.27 | -0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | -0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | — | 0.40 |