← Primeira Liga 2019-20 · Wed, Oct 30, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: Jorge de Sousa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 71% | 76% | 1.34 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 15% | 5.05 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 9% | 9% | 11.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Maritimo +1.5 | 53% | 1.84 |
| FC Porto +1.5 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 49% | 1.68 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 51% | 2.27 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Franck Bambock · Maritimo |
| 24' | 🟨 | Jesús Corona · FC Porto |
| 33' | 🟨 | Chancel Mbemba · FC Porto |
| 42' | 🟨 | Amir Abedzadeh · Maritimo |
| 64' | 🟨 | Marcelinho · Maritimo |
| 76' | 🟨 | Pedro Pelágio · Maritimo |
| 76' | 🟨 | Otavio · FC Porto |
| 78' | 🟨 | Edgar Costa · Maritimo |
| 82' | 🟨 | Alex Telles · FC Porto |
| 85' | ⚽ | Pepê · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 9 |
| 17 | Fouls | 20 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Estádio dos Barreiros |
| Agustín Marchesín · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 363.00 | 881.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 5.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 1.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 2.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.72 |
| elo | 1485.88 | 1894.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.17 | -17.35 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | 0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 66.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.75 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.73 |
| league points | 9.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.20 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.40 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 4.07 | 3.05 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 2.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | 11.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 18.00 |
| skill v1 | -2.22 | 1.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| squad age | — | 26.32 |
| state index | -0.15 | 1.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.53 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |