← Primeira Liga 2019-20 · Sat, Sep 28, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Rui Costa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 38% | 37% | 2.55 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.20 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 30% | 31% | 3.29 | value: +3% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC −0.25 | 55% | 1.78 |
| Maritimo −0.25 | 45% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 60% | 1.58 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 40% | 2.47 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | João Aurélio · Moreirense FC |
| 32' | 🟨 | Nenê · Moreirense FC |
| 44' | 🟨 | Franck Bambock · Maritimo |
| 50' | 🟨 | Fábio Pacheco · Moreirense FC |
| 62' | 🟨 | Ruben Ferreira · Maritimo |
| 73' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Camará · Moreirense FC |
| 74' | 🟨 | Zainadine Júnior · Maritimo |
| 78' | ⚽ | Nenê · Moreirense FC |
| 81' | 🟨 | Iago Santos · Moreirense FC |
| 84' | ⚽ (pen) | Rodrigo Pinho · Maritimo |
| 86' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 21 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Estádio dos Barreiros |
| ⚽ |
| Rodrigo Pinho · Maritimo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Edgar Costa · Maritimo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luís Machado · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 331.00 | 89.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1475.42 | 1512.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.18 | 0.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.86 | -0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.80 | 43.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.68 |
| league points | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.80 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 4.90 | 6.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.88 | -0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.67 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.10 | -0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |