← Primeira Liga 2019-20 · Sun, Sep 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Oliveira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 60% | 60% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.19 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 17% | 16% | 5.80 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela −1 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Rio Ave FC −1 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 56% | 1.82 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 44% | 2.07 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Pité · CD Tondela |
| 17' | ⚽ | Denilson · CD Tondela |
| 45' | 🟨 | Matheus Reis · Rio Ave FC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Tarantini · Rio Ave FC |
| 57' | ⚽ | Jonathan Toro · CD Tondela |
| 62' | ⚽ | Denilson · CD Tondela |
| 73' | 🟨 | João Jaquite · CD Tondela |
| 84' | ⚽ | Bruno Moreira · Rio Ave FC |
| 87' | 🟨 | Aderllan Santos · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jonathan Toro · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 23 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 0 |
| 15 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube |
| Pité · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 76.00 | 76.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.35 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1585.67 | 1470.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.71 | 18.37 |
| eye test v1 | 0.03 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.65 |
| league points | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.08 | -0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| state index | 0.57 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | -0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |