← Primeira Liga 2019-20 · Sat, Sep 14, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: António Nobre
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão win | 39% | 47% | 2.53 | value: +19% |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 32% | 31% | 3.01 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 22% | 3.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão +0 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Pacos Ferreira +0 | 47% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 60% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 40% | 2.28 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ (pen) | Fábio Martins · FC Famalicão |
| 45' | 🟨 | Fábio Martins · FC Famalicão |
| 56' | 🟨 | Álex Centelles · FC Famalicão |
| 60' | ⚽ | Gonçalo Rodrigues · FC Famalicão |
| 67' | ⚽ | Fábio Martins · FC Famalicão |
| 70' | 🟨 | Bruno Santos · Pacos Ferreira |
| 72' | ⚽ | Pote · FC Famalicão |
| 86' | 🟨 | Bernardo Martins · Pacos Ferreira |
| 87' | ⚽ | Douglas Tanque · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rafael Defendi · FC Famalicão |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 9 |
| 20 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Famalicão | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | — | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho |
| ⚽ |
| Douglas Tanque · Pacos Ferreira |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 621.00 | 470.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | — | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | — | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | — | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | — | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | — | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | — | 0.54 |
| elo | 1541.95 | 1429.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | — | -29.69 |
| eye test v1 | 0.60 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | — | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.33 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | — | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | — | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | — | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | — | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | — | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | — |
| league points | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.67 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.67 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | — |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 0.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | — | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | — | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.31 | 0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.33 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.67 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.22 | -1.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | — | 0.20 |