← Primeira Liga 2019-20 · Sat, Aug 31, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Luis Godinho
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aves win | 37% | 40% | 2.60 | value: +5% |
| FC Famalicão win | 34% | 30% | 2.82 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.38 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aves +0 | 52% | 1.89 |
| FC Famalicão +0 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 55% | 1.86 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 45% | 2.02 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Nehuén Pérez · FC Famalicão |
| 28' | 🟥 | Lionn · FC Famalicão |
| 31' | ⚽ | Mehrdad Mohammadi · Aves |
| 38' | 🟨 | Josh Tymon · FC Famalicão |
| 45' | 🟨 | Welinton Junior · Aves |
| 47' | 🟨 | Luiz Fernando · Aves |
| 58' | ⚽ (pen) | Fábio Martins · FC Famalicão |
| 66' | 🟨 | Rúben Macedo · Aves |
| 66' | 🟨 | Enzo Zidane · Aves |
| 82' | 🟥 | Afonso Figueiredo · Aves |
| 82' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 21 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aves | FC Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | — |
| venue | Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves |
| 🟨 |
| Gustavo Assunção · FC Famalicão |
| 86' | ⚽ | Anderson Silva · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bruno Xavier · Aves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fábio Martins · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | ⚽ | Kahraba · Aves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 607.00 | 607.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | — |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | — |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | — |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | — |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | — |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | — |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | — |
| elo | 1481.00 | 1531.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.90 | — |
| eye test v1 | -0.69 | 0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.42 | — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | — |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | — |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | — |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | — |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | — |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | — |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.64 |
| league points | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 79.50 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 56.50 |
| rest days | 7.80 | 5.81 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | — |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | — |
| skill v1 | -1.10 | 0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.53 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.90 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | — |