← Primeira Liga 2019-20 · Sat, Aug 24, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Mota
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Boavista win | 38% | 46% | 2.58 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 31% | 27% | 3.04 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 30% | 27% | 3.14 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Pacos Ferreira −0.25 | 55% | 1.76 |
| Boavista −0.25 | 45% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 63% | 61% | 1.51 | fair |
| Over | 37% | 39% | 2.68 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 8 |
| 17 | Fouls | 17 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estádio do Bessa Século XXI |