← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Malheiro Pinto, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 41% | 30% | 2.36 | fair |
| Boavista win | 30% | 26% | 3.29 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 44% | 3.37 | value: +49% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Fábio China · Maritimo |
| 23' | 🟨 | Perdigão · Boavista |
| 30' | ⚽ | Nwankwo Obiora · Boavista |
| 65' | 🟨 | Assis · Boavista |
| 89' | 🟨 | Jubal · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio do Marítimo |
| coach days | 198.00 | 137.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1505.90 | 1545.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.40 | 49.72 |
| eye test v1 | -1.31 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.00 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| league points | 39.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.20 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.42 | -1.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.07 | 0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | -1.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |