← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Filipe Domingues Narciso, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feirense win | 60% | 29% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 29% | 4.39 | value: +26% |
| Aves win | 18% | 43% | 5.26 | value: +125% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Jorge Fellipe · Aves |
| 41' | 🟨 | Tiago Silva · Feirense |
| 62' | ⚽ | Edinho · Feirense |
| 74' | 🟨 | Edson Farias · Feirense |
| 76' | ⚽ | João Silva · Feirense |
| 83' | 🟨 | Diego Galo · Aves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Elvis Babanco · Feirense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 15 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 20 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feirense | Aves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.56 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estádio Marcolino de Castro |
| coach days | 1173.00 | 502.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 3.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1362.38 | 1498.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.65 | 18.75 |
| eye test v1 | -0.25 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.76 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.70 | 67.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.76 |
| league points | 17.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.00 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 35.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.52 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.10 | -1.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| state index | -1.78 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.22 | -2.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |