← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge de Sousa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 89% | 84% | 1.09 | fair |
| Draw | 7% | 12% | 13.20 | value: +55% |
| CD Santa Clara win | 4% | 4% | 27.36 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 17 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 3 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | CD Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.54 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Estádio da Luz |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 137.00 | 2024.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1925.66 | 1523.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.13 | 6.38 |
| eye test v1 | 1.50 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.30 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.62 |
| league points | 84.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.55 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.60 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.80 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.80 | 0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 24.77 | 26.30 |
| state index | 1.82 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | 0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |