← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Fri, May 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Carlos Santos Capela, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 72% | 75% | 1.34 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 17% | 5.83 | fair |
| Portimonense win | 11% | 8% | 8.55 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Bruno Xadas · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 27' | 🟨 | Lucas Fernandes · Portimonense |
| 28' | 🟨 | Marcelo Goiano · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 45' | 🟨 | Vítor Tormena · Portimonense |
| 56' | ⚽ (pen) | Dyego Sousa · Sporting Clube de Braga |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 25 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Braga |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 197.00 | 289.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 2.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1696.77 | 1500.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.94 | 10.53 |
| eye test v1 | 1.10 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.80 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.61 |
| league points | 64.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.94 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.14 | 0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.77 | 26.02 |
| state index | 0.18 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.09 | -0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |