← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Thu, May 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Vitor Ferreira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 44% | 46% | 2.20 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 30% | 33% | 3.27 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 26% | 21% | 3.77 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Kikas · Belenenses |
| 36' | 🟨 | Andre Santos · Belenenses |
| 47' | ⚽ | Cleylton · Belenenses |
| 78' | 🟨 | Mauro Cerqueira · CD Nacional |
| 79' | ⚽ | Andre Santos · Belenenses |
| 83' | 🟨 | Júlio César · CD Nacional |
| 88' | 🟨 | Bryan Rochez · CD Nacional |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dalcio · Belenenses |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 18 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadio Nacional do Jamor |
| coach days |
| 775.00 |
| 684.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 3.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1490.46 | 1388.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -56.19 | -14.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.51 |
| league points | 40.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.40 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.53 | 0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | -1.48 | -1.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.38 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |