← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Malheiro Pinto, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara win | 53% | 63% | 1.83 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 26% | 21% | 3.79 | fair |
| Feirense win | 21% | 16% | 4.63 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Mamadu Cande · CD Santa Clara |
| 30' | ⚽ (pen) | Tiago Silva · Feirense |
| 36' | ⚽ | Mateus Anderson · Feirense |
| 40' | ⚽ | Flávio Ramos · Feirense |
| 43' | ⚽ | Guilherme Schettine · CD Santa Clara |
| 49' | 🟨 | Guilherme Schettine · CD Santa Clara |
| 58' | ⚽ | Guilherme Schettine · CD Santa Clara |
| 70' | ⚽ | Elvis Babanco · Feirense |
| 80' | ⚽ | Guilherme Schettine · CD Santa Clara |
| 82' | 🟨 | Vitor Bruno · Feirense |
| 90' | 🟨 | Flávio Ramos · Feirense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Santa Clara | Feirense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| venue | Estádio de São Miguel |
| coach days | 2017.00 | 1166.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 1.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1535.42 | 1356.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.95 | -17.95 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | -0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.84 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.57 |
| league points | 41.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.51 | -0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.20 | -1.95 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.68 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |