← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Claudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense win | 63% | 54% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 26% | 4.48 | value: +14% |
| Maritimo win | 16% | 21% | 6.22 | value: +28% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Joel Tagueu · Maritimo |
| 28' | ⚽ | Henrique · Portimonense |
| 39' | ⚽ (pen) | Joel Tagueu · Maritimo |
| 52' | 🟨 | Joel Tagueu · Maritimo |
| 61' | 🟨 | Renê Santos · Maritimo |
| 62' | ⚽ | Dener · Portimonense |
| 88' | ⚽ | Jackson Martínez · Portimonense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 18 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portimonense | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Portimão |
| coach days |
| 283.00 |
| 191.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -6.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 9.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1476.94 | 1515.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.20 | 21.71 |
| eye test v1 | 0.32 | -1.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.66 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 50.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.69 |
| league points | 36.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 67.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 5.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.09 | -1.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 2.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.40 |
| state index | -0.40 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |