← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Fri, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Carlos Santos Capela, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aves win | 40% | 41% | 2.42 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.25 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 30% | 28% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | 🟨 | Pedro Trigueira · Moreirense FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mama Baldé · Aves |
| 54' | ⚽ | Chiquinho · Moreirense FC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Luquinhas · Aves |
| 82' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Camará · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aves | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio do CD das Aves |
| coach days | 494.00 | 313.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | 1.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1509.90 | 1521.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.63 | -26.10 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.50 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.65 |
| league points | 36.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.60 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.78 | -0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.05 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.33 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |