← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela win | 60% | 55% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.13 | fair |
| CD Santa Clara win | 17% | 22% | 5.84 | value: +29% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ (pen) | Osama Rashid · CD Santa Clara |
| 26' | 🟨 | Osama Rashid · CD Santa Clara |
| 31' | 🟨 | Fábio Cardoso · CD Santa Clara |
| 42' | 🟨 | João Lopes · CD Santa Clara |
| 51' | ⚽ (pen) | Tomané · CD Tondela |
| 66' | ⚽ | Guilherme Schettine · CD Santa Clara |
| 76' | ⚽ | Osama Rashid · CD Santa Clara |
| 88' | 🟨 | Sergio Peña · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | CD Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.36 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 1251.00 | 2011.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.23 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1458.12 | 1520.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.73 | 8.04 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | -0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.78 |
| league points | 31.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.72 | 0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| state index | -0.22 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.99 | 0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |