← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Vitória SC win | 60% | 59% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | 4.32 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 17% | 19% | 5.60 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 25 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.