← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Hugo Miguel, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 86% | 85% | 1.12 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 11% | 11.01 | value: +18% |
| Aves win | 5% | 4% | 19.08 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Jesús Corona · FC Porto |
| 30' | ⚽ (pen) | Tiquinho Soares · FC Porto |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jorge Fellipe · Aves |
| 47' | 🟨 | Héctor Herrera · FC Porto |
| 68' | ⚽ | Wilson Manafá · FC Porto |
| 70' | ⚽ | Tiquinho Soares · FC Porto |
| 76' | 🟨 | Luis Farina · Aves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
| 11 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Aves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio do Dragão |
| coach days | 702.00 | 488.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1891.69 | 1512.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.01 | 52.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.54 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 69.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.77 |
| league points | 76.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 68.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.20 | 37.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.45 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.18 | -1.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.95 | — |
| state index | 1.49 | 0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.97 | -2.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.44 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.41 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |