← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Mota da Silva, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves win | 50% | 58% | 1.94 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 28% | 20% | 3.53 | fair |
| Feirense win | 22% | 22% | 4.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | William · Chaves |
| 11' | 🟨 | Renan Bressan · Chaves |
| 13' | ⚽ (og) | Djavan · Feirense |
| 28' | 🟨 | Cris · Feirense |
| 37' | ⚽ | Vitor Bruno · Feirense |
| 48' | 🟨 | Flávio Ramos · Feirense |
| 59' | ⚽ | Nikola Maraš · Chaves |
| 70' | ⚽ | Elvis Babanco · Feirense |
| 73' | ⚽ | Higor Platiny · Chaves |
| 76' | ⚽ | Luís Machado · Feirense |
| 83' | 🟨 | Luís Machado · Feirense |
| 88' | 🟨 | Tiago Silva · Feirense |
| 90' | 🟨 | Caio · Feirense |
| 90' | ⚽ | Higor Platiny · Chaves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 20 | Fouls | 20 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feirense | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio Marcolino de Castro |
| coach days | 1159.00 | 64.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 3.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1353.86 | 1504.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.14 | 7.56 |
| eye test v1 | -1.32 | -0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.63 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 48.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.74 |
| league points | 15.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.60 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 0.48 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.44 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.10 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| state index | -2.02 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | -0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |