← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Fri, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Malheiro Pinto, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 39% | 40% | 2.50 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 34% | 35% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.57 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Nuno Santos · Rio Ave FC |
| 28' | 🟨 | Rafik Halliche · Moreirense FC |
| 36' | ⚽ | Pedro Nuno · Moreirense FC |
| 51' | 🟨 | Chiquinho · Moreirense FC |
| 57' | 🟨 | Junio Rocha · Rio Ave FC |
| 62' | 🟨 | Tarantini · Rio Ave FC |
| 66' | ⚽ | Gelson Dala · Rio Ave FC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Rúben Semedo · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 21 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas |
| coach days | 306.00 | 153.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 3.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1533.26 | 1545.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.53 | 12.03 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | -0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.70 |
| league points | 49.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.25 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.02 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |