← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 53% | 61% | 1.82 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.79 | fair |
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 21% | 16% | 4.67 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Pizzi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 33' | 🟨 | Rúben Dias · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 35' | ⚽ (pen) | Wilson Eduardo · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 45' | 🟨 | João Palhinha · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 45' | 🟨 | Florentino Luís · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 48' | 🟨 | Fransérgio · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 57' | 🟨 | Ricardo Esgaio · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 59' | ⚽ (pen) | Pizzi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 60' | 🟨 | João Félix · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 64' | 🟨 | Bruno Viana · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 65' | ⚽ (pen) | Pizzi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 69' | ⚽ | Rúben Dias · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 72' | 🟨 | Rafa Silva · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 77' | 🟨 | Haris Seferović · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 90' | ⚽ | Rafa Silva · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 9 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Braga |
| 0.40 |
| coach days | 178.00 | 117.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.41 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1721.29 | 1886.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.17 | -6.70 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | 0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 2.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.72 |
| league points | 64.00 | 75.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 60.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 2.13 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.45 | 1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| squad age | — | 23.86 |
| state index | 0.70 | 1.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | 0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |