← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves win | 53% | 45% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 21% | 3.78 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 22% | 34% | 4.49 | value: +55% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | William · Chaves |
| 19' | ⚽ (pen) | João Camacho · CD Nacional |
| 22' | ⚽ | William · Chaves |
| 54' | 🟨 | Gastón Campi · Chaves |
| 64' | ⚽ | Luther Singh · Chaves |
| 66' | 🟨 | Luther Singh · Chaves |
| 72' | 🟨 | Júlio César · CD Nacional |
| 84' | 🟨 | Avto · CD Nacional |
| 86' | ⚽ (pen) | William · Chaves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 11 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio Engenheiro Branco Teixeira |
| coach days | 58.00 | 666.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 8.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 4.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1494.33 | 1395.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.85 | -22.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.68 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.50 | 52.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.49 |
| league points | 28.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.00 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.38 | 0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.33 | -0.93 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |