← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 41% | 37% | 2.40 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 36% | 3.29 | value: +19% |
| Moreirense FC win | 30% | 26% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | — · Boavista |
| 26' | ⚽ | Nwankwo Obiora · Boavista |
| 37' | 🟨 | Iago Santos · Moreirense FC |
| 39' | 🟨 | Lucas · Moreirense FC |
| 81' | ⚽ | Yusupha Njie · Boavista |
| 86' | ⚽ | Federico Falcone · Boavista |
| 88' | 🟨 | Nwankwo Obiora · Boavista |
| 89' | 🟨 | Rafik Halliche · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Rafik Halliche · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa |
| coach days |
| 117.00 |
| 301.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.85 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1492.06 | 1548.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.14 | 10.37 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | — |
| league points | 32.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.92 | -0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.02 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.55 | -0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |