← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Carlos Santos Capela, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense win | 67% | 60% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 21% | 4.75 | fair |
| Feirense win | 13% | 19% | 7.63 | value: +47% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Jádson · Portimonense |
| 32' | 🟥 | Tiago Gomes · Feirense |
| 37' | ⚽ | Bruno Tabata · Portimonense |
| 45' | 🟥 | Aylton Boa Morte · Portimonense |
| 86' | 🟨 | Pedro Sá · Portimonense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portimonense | Feirense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Portimão |
| coach days | 269.00 | 1152.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1487.78 | 1374.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.79 | -20.85 |
| eye test v1 | 0.92 | -1.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.56 |
| league points | 33.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 40.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.67 | -1.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 2.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 26.42 | 28.49 |
| state index | -0.72 | -1.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.44 | -0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |