← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Fri, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Artur Soares Dias, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 79% | 77% | 1.23 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 12% | 6.73 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 7% | 11% | 13.71 | value: +49% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Yacine Brahimi · FC Porto |
| 21' | 🟨 | Moussa Marega · FC Porto |
| 22' | ⚽ | Moussa Marega · FC Porto |
| 38' | 🟨 | Junio Rocha · Rio Ave FC |
| 80' | 🟨 | Nikola Jambor · Rio Ave FC |
| 84' | ⚽ | Nuno Santos · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nikola Jambor · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Nikola Jambor · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ronan · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estádio dos Arcos |
| coach days | 146.00 | 694.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.66 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.73 |
| elo | 1538.89 | 1898.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.70 | 17.41 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | 1.00 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.68 |
| league points | 38.00 | 75.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 64.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 11.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.75 | 1.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.20 |
| squad age | — | 26.43 |
| state index | -0.07 | 1.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.50 | 0.97 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |