← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Mon, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 88% | 89% | 1.10 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 7% | 11.11 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 3% | 4% | 28.67 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | João Félix · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 39' | 🟨 | Renê Santos · Maritimo |
| 49' | ⚽ | Pizzi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 64' | ⚽ | João Félix · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 71' | ⚽ | Franco Cervi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 81' | 🟨 | — · Maritimo |
| 83' | 🟨 | Fabricio Baiano · Maritimo |
| 88' | ⚽ | Franco Cervi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 90' | ⚽ | Eduardo Salvio · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 1 |
| 11 | On target | 0 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio da Luz |
| coach days |
| 111.00 |
| 172.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1883.44 | 1492.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.56 | 13.09 |
| eye test v1 | 0.73 | -1.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.10 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.72 |
| league points | 72.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 64.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 2.48 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | -9.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.09 | -1.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 23.71 | — |
| state index | 1.29 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.68 | -0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |