← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Oliveira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 86% | 79% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 17% | 9.27 | value: +60% |
| CD Santa Clara win | 4% | 3% | 24.21 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Moussa Marega · FC Porto |
| 74' | 🟨 | Guilherme Schettine · CD Santa Clara |
| 83' | 🟨 | Jesús Corona · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fernando Andrade · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | CD Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.42 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio do Dragão |
| coach days | 688.00 | 1996.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1897.13 | 1525.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.36 | 7.13 |
| eye test v1 | 1.01 | -0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.79 |
| league points | 72.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.60 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.48 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 12.40 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.00 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.65 | 0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.43 | — |
| state index | 1.78 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.94 | 1.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |