← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge de Sousa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 51% | 50% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.60 | fair |
| Chaves win | 22% | 23% | 4.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | 🟨 | Nikola Maraš · Chaves |
| 44' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Camará · Moreirense FC |
| 51' | 🟨 | Chiquinho · Moreirense FC |
| 61' | 🟨 | Iago Santos · Moreirense FC |
| 72' | ⚽ | Nikola Maraš · Chaves |
| 75' | 🟨 | Nenê · Moreirense FC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Gevorg Ghazaryan · Chaves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bruno Gallo · Chaves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 23 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.20 |
| venue | Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas |
| coach days |
| 293.00 |
| 50.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 3.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1561.95 | 1480.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.99 | -5.63 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | -0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 50.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.69 |
| league points | 49.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.78 | -1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| state index | 0.17 | -0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.67 | -0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |