← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 41% | 39% | 2.40 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 30% | 29% | 3.21 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.37 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Bruno Moreira · Rio Ave FC |
| 21' | 🟨 | Filipe Augusto · Rio Ave FC |
| 35' | ⚽ | Bruno Moreira · Rio Ave FC |
| 42' | 🟨 | Matija Ljujic · Belenenses |
| 48' | ⚽ | Toni Borevković · Rio Ave FC |
| 73' | ⚽ | Vincent Sasso · Belenenses |
| 90' | 🟨 | Zakarya Bergdich · Belenenses |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 20 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| venue | Estadio Nacional do Jamor |
| coach days |
| 749.00 |
| 140.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 3.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1546.47 | 1520.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.13 | -4.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | -0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.80 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.76 |
| league points | 40.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.09 | -0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| state index | -0.45 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.14 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |