← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Vitor Ferreira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 56% | 56% | 1.74 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.65 | fair |
| Feirense win | 17% | 22% | 5.63 | value: +25% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Zainadine Júnior · Maritimo |
| 37' | 🟨 | Renê Santos · Maritimo |
| 39' | ⚽ | Joel Tagueu · Maritimo |
| 42' | 🟨 | Bruno Nascimento · Feirense |
| 43' | ⚽ | Edgar Costa · Maritimo |
| 50' | 🟨 | Kuca · Feirense |
| 53' | 🟨 | Edgar Costa · Maritimo |
| 65' | 🟨 | Vitor Bruno · Feirense |
| 67' | 🟨 | João Silva · Feirense |
| 68' | 🟨 | Ali Ghazal · Feirense |
| 71' | 🟨 | Ali Ghazal · Feirense |
| 71' | 🟥 | Ali Ghazal · Feirense |
| 73' | 🟨 | Bruno Nascimento · Feirense |
| 73' | 🟥 | Bruno Nascimento · Feirense |
| 83' | 🟨 | Rafael Crivellaro · Feirense |
| 84' | 🟨 | Joel Tagueu · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 5 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 8 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Feirense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Estádio do Marítimo |
| coach days |
| 164.00 |
| 1139.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.06 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1484.50 | 1372.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.40 | -17.75 |
| eye test v1 | -1.15 | -1.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.00 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.60 |
| league points | 30.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.60 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 0.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.80 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.84 | -0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| state index | -0.37 | -1.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.82 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |