← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Hugo Miguel, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 47% | 40% | 2.08 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.55 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 26% | 36% | 3.80 | value: +36% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Fábio Espinho · Boavista |
| 27' | 🟨 | Kalindi · CD Nacional |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rafael Bracali · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 0 |
| 9 | Corners | 10 |
| 19 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa |
| coach days |
| 103.00 |
| 652.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 9.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 3.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1495.63 | 1403.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.20 | -17.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.70 | 0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 49.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.49 |
| league points | 29.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.80 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.28 | 0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| state index | -0.32 | -0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.51 | 0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.00 |