← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Nobre, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara win | 41% | 33% | 2.37 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 29% | 39% | 3.31 | value: +29% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.32 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Pedro Nuno · Moreirense FC |
| 23' | 🟨 | Francisco Ramos · CD Santa Clara |
| 31' | 🟥 | Pedro Trigueira · Moreirense FC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Guilherme Schettine · CD Santa Clara |
| 70' | 🟨 | César Martins · CD Santa Clara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 16 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Santa Clara | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio de São Miguel |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 1989.00 | 286.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 1.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1525.88 | 1561.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.70 | 9.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.93 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.49 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.80 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.77 |
| league points | 36.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.32 | -0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.58 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |