← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 71% | 61% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 30% | 5.36 | value: +58% |
| Portimonense win | 11% | 9% | 9.05 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Yacine Brahimi · FC Porto |
| 34' | 🟨 | Lucas Fernandes · Portimonense |
| 50' | 🟨 | Wilson Manafá · FC Porto |
| 58' | 🟨 | Dener · Portimonense |
| 62' | 🟨 | Jackson Martínez · Portimonense |
| 65' | 🟨 | Aylton Boa Morte · Portimonense |
| 73' | ⚽ | Moussa Marega · FC Porto |
| 86' | 🟨 | Pepê · FC Porto |
| 90' | ⚽ | Héctor Herrera · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portimonense | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Portimão |
| coach days | 255.00 | 681.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 5.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 2.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.77 |
| elo | 1489.91 | 1910.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.14 | 1.80 |
| eye test v1 | 1.34 | 1.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.30 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.64 |
| league points | 32.00 | 69.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 66.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 2.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 14.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.40 | 20.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.25 | 1.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 25.91 | 28.09 |
| state index | -0.32 | 1.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.07 | 0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |