← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Fri, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Helder Malheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves win | 49% | 52% | 1.98 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.52 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 23% | 23% | 4.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Gastón Campi · Chaves |
| 29' | 🟨 | Matija Ljujic · Belenenses |
| 37' | ⚽ | Vincent Sasso · Belenenses |
| 45' | 🟥 | André Luis · Chaves |
| 52' | ⚽ | Licá · Belenenses |
| 76' | ⚽ | Gastón Campi · Chaves |
| 79' | 🟨 | Diogo Viana · Belenenses |
| 82' | 🟥 | Pierre Sagna · Belenenses |
| 86' | 🟥 | Luther Singh · Chaves |
| 90' | 🟨 | João Teixeira · Chaves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Zakarya Bergdich · Belenenses |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 22 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 2 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio Engenheiro Branco Teixeira |
| coach days | 42.00 | 741.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.96 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1480.29 | 1546.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.67 | -5.80 |
| eye test v1 | -0.83 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 64.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.65 |
| league points | 24.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.85 | 0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.37 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | 1.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |