← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 78% | 84% | 1.24 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 15% | 9% | 6.29 | fair |
| Feirense win | 7% | 7% | 14.57 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Fábio Sturgeon · Feirense |
| 40' | ⚽ (pen) | Pizzi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 45' | ⚽ | André Almeida · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 49' | ⚽ | Haris Seferović · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 58' | 🟨 | Elvis Babanco · Feirense |
| 64' | 🟨 | Tiago Silva · Feirense |
| 89' | ⚽ | Haris Seferović · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 6 | Shots | 18 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feirense | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Estádio Marcolino de Castro |
| 0.20 |
| coach days | 1132.00 | 96.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1374.36 | 1893.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.07 | -12.92 |
| eye test v1 | -1.51 | 0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 2.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.85 |
| league points | 15.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 60.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.56 | 2.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.40 | 0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.10 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | — | 24.48 |
| state index | -1.77 | 1.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.41 | 0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.16 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.40 |