← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge de Sousa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 35% | 36% | 2.76 | fair |
| Aves win | 33% | 36% | 2.96 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 32% | 28% | 3.09 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Vítor Gonçalves · CD Nacional |
| 27' | 🟨 | Claudio Falcão · Aves |
| 31' | 🟨 | Vitor Costa · Aves |
| 34' | 🟨 | Lazar Rosić · CD Nacional |
| 39' | 🟨 | Lazar Rosić · CD Nacional |
| 39' | 🟥 | Lazar Rosić · CD Nacional |
| 45' | 🟨 | Vitor Costa · Aves |
| 45' | 🟥 | Vitor Costa · Aves |
| 49' | 🟨 | Júlio César · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 11 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Aves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| coach days | 644.00 | 460.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.65 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1418.08 | 1485.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.59 | 30.77 |
| eye test v1 | 0.35 | 0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 69.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.48 | 0.73 |
| league points | 26.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 67.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 37.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | -1.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.29 | 27.24 |
| state index | -0.69 | 0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | -2.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.43 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |