← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Artur Soares Dias, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 53% | 46% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.83 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 22% | 28% | 4.42 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 47' | ⚽ | Ivanildo Fernandes · Moreirense FC |
| 62' | 🟨 | Pablo Santos · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 63' | 🟨 | Ivanildo Fernandes · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 6 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 7 |
| 18 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas |
| coach days |
| 279.00 |
| 156.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 3.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1548.01 | 1724.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.54 | -15.75 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | -0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.68 |
| league points | 45.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 6.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 2.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.80 | 0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.13 | 0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |