← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Xistra, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 43% | 43% | 2.24 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.11 | fair |
| CD Santa Clara win | 25% | 25% | 3.87 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Nuno Coelho · Belenenses |
| 20' | 🟨 | Bruno Lamas · CD Santa Clara |
| 36' | 🟨 | João Lucas · CD Santa Clara |
| 40' | ⚽ | Zé Manuel · CD Santa Clara |
| 44' | 🟨 | Nuno Coelho · Belenenses |
| 47' | 🟨 | Nuno Coelho · Belenenses |
| 47' | 🟥 | Nuno Coelho · Belenenses |
| 60' | 🟨 | Kaio · CD Santa Clara |
| 70' | 🟨 | Osama Rashid · CD Santa Clara |
| 87' | 🟨 | Francisco Ramos · CD Santa Clara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 1 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | CD Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.43 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estadio Nacional do Jamor |
| coach days | 735.00 | 1982.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 3.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.01 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1564.32 | 1514.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.58 | 18.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | -0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.90 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.76 |
| league points | 38.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 28.62 | 26.06 |
| state index | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |